Future of Work: Does History Repeat Itself — Part 1
As we stand at the brink of the next great leap in industrial evolution — Industry 5.0 — I thought it might be interesting to look back and understand the transformations that have led us here so that we have a better understanding of the impact technologies such as AI can have on jobs in the near future.
Every technology revolution till date has made some skills easier to acquire, some outcomes easier to scale, some roles redundant and created a set of new jobs which didn’t exist before. Is there a pattern? Can we derive some insights from the past to help us predict the future? I don’t know. Lets find out.
Whether you’re a technology enthusiast eager to grasp the intricacies of how jobs have evolved over time, a career explorer seeking future-proof opportunities, or a business leader strategizing your organization’s future, this 5 part series is designed for you. We’ll dive deep into the past industrial revolutions and their impact on job roles, chart the course of changing managerial responsibilities, and forecast the emerging job roles in the face of advancing technologies like AI, quantum computing, and blockchain. Join me on this fascinating journey to explore how the future of work is being reshaped and what it might mean for us in the rapidly transforming job landscape.
Part One: The Industrial Revolution and its Impact on Jobs
The Dawn of the Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution, initiating in the late 18th century, marked a momentous period of rapid mechanization and forever altered the global landscape of work. This era, which transitioned the primary industry from agriculture to manufacturing, saw GDP per capita in England skyrocket from $1,706 in 1700 to $4,096 in 1850 [1]. Manual labor began to be replaced by machines, leading to significant shifts in job roles and worker responsibilities. As the cradle of this revolution, Britain witnessed significant changes in its job landscape, for which detailed statistical data is readily available. Meanwhile, the impacts on countries like India, under British colonial rule during this period, were profound, although specific numerical data might not be as accurate or readily available due to differences in historical record-keeping.
The Fade-Out of Artisan Skills
Artisan Roles: Prior to the Industrial Revolution, artisan crafts dominated the economic landscape. However, between 1760 and 1830, manual labor roles such as spinners, weavers, and blacksmiths started to wane as factories powered by steam and water emerged [2].
The Rise of Factories: The advent of factories and mass production, coupled with the introduction of mechanized textile production, saw a significant shift in job roles. Machine operators and factory workers emerged, with over 250,000 people employed in cotton mills by 1850 [3].
The Emergence of New Job Roles
Factory Workers: These were the new artisans, people who could, for example, make clothes or reshape metal, creating things that were far more difficult for their predecessors to produce. While ‘skills’ got reduced or transformed to knowing how to operate machinery, the output produced by every worker increased 10X.
Factory Managers: With the rise of factories, factory managers became integral. Responsible for overseeing operations, managing workers, and ensuring productivity, factory managers were at the heart of this new industrial age.
Mechanical Engineers: Mechanical engineers, responsible for designing and improving industrial machinery, also found prominence during this era. The British engineering industry employed approximately 250,000 workers by 1851 [4].
Managerial Transformations in the Industrial Age
From Generalists to Specialists: The Industrial Revolution changed the face of managerial roles. Where once managers were generalists, they became specialists, focusing on large scale production and industrial management.
Increased Scale: Managers transitioned from overseeing small teams and multi-faceted operations to managing larger teams and single aspects of expansive operations.
Creation of Transport-Related Roles
Steam Power and Railways: The advent of steam power and railways led to the creation of roles like train drivers, railway engineers, and ticket inspectors. By 1850, the railway industry employed over 100,000 people in the UK alone [5]. As the transport network expanded, so did jobs in related industries such as coal mining, which saw employment numbers reach 200,000 by 1850 [6].
Conclusion: Transformation, not Replacement
The Industrial Revolution marked more than just a replacement of old roles with new ones. It represented a transition from individual craftsmanship to mechanized, organized mass production. The skills required in the workplace underwent a significant transformation, and societies adapted accordingly. This transformation was witnessed globally, starting in Britain for the most part, but also cascading throughout the world.
As we will see in the later parts of this series as well, one of the most consistent trends across each industrial revolution is the initial fear and anxiety associated with job losses. With each new wave of technology, there have been concerns about machines replacing human labor. For instance, during the first Industrial Revolution, the Luddites feared that textile machinery would render their skills obsolete.
As we transition into a new age of digital revolution, we must ask ourselves, how is this current revolution impacting our work, and what lessons can we learn from the past? Stay tuned for the next part of the series as we continue our journey through time, examining how job roles have evolved and predicting how they might change in the future.
References
[1] “British Economic Growth, 1270–1870,” Broadberry, S., & Campbell, B., & Klein, A., & Overton, M., & van Leeuwen, B., 2015
[2] “The Industrial Revolution in the Eighteenth Century,” Paul Mantoux, 1928
[3] “The Factory System in the British Industrial Revolution: A Complementary Hypothesis,” Nicholas Crafts, 1985
[4] “Victorian Engineering,” L.T.C. Rolt, 1970
[5] “Railways and Economic Growth in England and Wales 1840–1870,” T. R. Gourvish, 2002
[6] “Coal in Victorian Britain,” Ben Curtis and Steven Thompson, 2012
